East-West divide develops in hiring expectations

A new East-West divide emerging with a vertical line running straight down from the North of England to the South, with employers in the East currently much more optimistic about hiring than those in the West, according to Manpower's latest Employment Outlook.

The quarterly report based on 2,100 employers' views shows hiring expectations for early 2012 have slumped to their weakest levels since the recession. Eight in 10 employers are not intending to change their staffing levels in the next quarter, but the number of employers looking to hire new staff is comparable to the number expecting to cut jobs.

On an individual region basis, employers in the North East of England report the most optimistic hiring plans going into 2012 with an Outlook of +10%. Employers in the East Midlands and the East of England each report healthy Outlooks of +7% and +5%, respectively. The South East is +4% and London +5% despite a wave of recent redundancies in the financial sector.

However, the situation in the West is very different. Employers in the South West (-4%) report a negative outlook for the first time in a decade. In the West Midlands, the Outlook has dropped three percentage points quarter over quarter, and now stands at -3%. The North West has also witnessed a decline and is two points down on the previous quarter at -5%. Although employers in Northern Ireland and Wales have reported small quarter-on-quarter improvements, their forecasts remain firmly rooted in negative territory with Outlooks remaining sluggish at -6% and -3% respectively says Manpower. Scottish employers report a neutral outlook in line with the overall national picture.

Of the sectors that are creating jobs, Utilities is the most positive, with employers in the Water, Gas and Electricity industries reporting hiring intentions of +13%, a rise of 2 percentage points on the previous quarter.

Manpower says this sector has proved particularly resilient, as the only sector demonstrating a positive Outlook in every quarter throughout the downturn. The Manufacturing sector also shows signs of optimism with employers reporting a cautiously optimistic Outlook of +5%.

"The 2012 jobs market sits on a knife edge. In some ways this is a reflection of a weakening economy. We hear stories about companies hoarding cash and not investing. In the same way, we see a number of business sectors battening down the hatches, holding onto existing levels of staff and not hiring with any great enthusiasm. Employers have now adopted a wait-and-see approach to hiring; they are cautious about the economy and the fear of a Euro-wide contagion is weighing heavily on their minds," said Manpower UK Managing Director, Mark Cahill.