The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) has warned that the public sector could shed as many as 725,000 jobs.
The figures offer a revised prediction from earlier CIPD forecasts which suggested that 500,000 government jobs could go by 2015. The initial forecast was based on the prediction that the government would address its debts using a 60:40 split between public spending cuts and tax rises.
But in a presentation due to be delivered later today, Dr John Philpott, Chief Economic Adviser for the CIPD will warn that the ratios have moved: “If as seems likely the coalition government adopts a split closer to 80:20 UK public sector jobs losses of around 725,000 are expected."
Philpott will go onto comment on total unemployment figures: “The revised CIPD forecast – which is subject to further review at the time of the Emergency Budget on June 22 – is that unemployment will rise to a peak of 2.95 million in the second half of 2012 and remain close to that level until 2015. There is little prospect of real wage growth on average throughout this period and ongoing real wage cuts in the public sector.”
Earlier this week, www.workingmums.co.uk
reported on the latest Manpower employment outlook survey which suggests that employer forecasts have fallen into negative hiring for the first time since 1994. In reaction to the news, Manpower’s managing director, Mark Cahill said the public sector should look to flexible working to survive spending cuts.
“By following the example of the private sector, where innovative solutions such as flexible working, internal redeployment programmes and well-managed non-permanent workforces have supported companies through the recession, the public sector can begin to develop a smart, sustainable talent strategy.”